Download Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer by James Shinn PDF

By James Shinn

The goal of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced by way of many of the strength events to a treaty. although, arriving at an contract in regards to the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace phrases could be tricky, given the divergence within the events' pursuits and goals. The U.S. aim

in those negotiations may be a strong and peaceable Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.

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Finally, it may be convinced that it has enough sources of leverage over the Americans (including the vulnerable logistics supply lines used to conduct the Afghan war and the ISI’s cooperation against Al Qaeda) that it can play a double game in Afghanistan indefinitely. Only time, and Pakistan’s actions once a peace process begins, will tell. Reintegration Versus Reconciliation The United States under the George W. Bush administration was not, in principle, opposed to peace talks. Until recently, however, Washington has preferred to concentrate on detaching Taliban foot soldiers and lower-level field commanders from the fight, a process called reintegration, arguing that any top-down effort to engage the insurgency’s higher leadership should await improvements on the battlefield.

A financial package might also emerge as an essential complement to a political settlement, particularly if the Taliban has to renounce at least some of the revenue it currently gathers. 5 In sum, we do not know whether the Taliban (at all levels) believes that time is on its side. We also do not know how coherent the insurgency is, either horizontally or vertically, with regard to negotiating a peace accord, although we believe it to be fairly incoherent across both dimensions, which is not necessarily good news.

20 Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer age is decreasing, and its control over decisions is probably very limited. It will, however, do its best to sabotage any negotiation. The Taliban has established a shadow national organization corresponding to most of Afghanistan, although it is more prevalent in the south and southeast. The IEA did, after all, exercise nominal control over 95 percent of the territory of Afghanistan for several years. Many of the local leaders of this shadow organization have been killed or captured, and the pace of attrition increased in 2010 due to expanded drone targeting and special operations raids and to the troop surge in Helmand and Kandahar.

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